TD Bank

Modelling / Forecasting Senior Analyst (Quants)

TD Bank$81K — $115K *
Finance & Insurance
Less than 5 years of experience
Job Overview by Ladders

Qualifications

  • Graduate degree in a quantitative discipline (Statistics, Mathematics, Financial Engineering, etc.)
  • Experience or strong academic exposure in credit risk modeling and forecasting
  • Knowledge of credit risk parameters and frameworks (PD, LGD, EAD, CECL/IFRS 9)
  • Strong programming skills, preferably in Python and SQL
  • Experience with complex datasets and quantitative methods
  • Strong analytical and communication skills
  • Familiarity with automation, machine learning, or model risk management

Responsibilities

  • Design and enhance credit risk models for U.S. Commercial portfolios
  • Develop forecasting methodologies and conduct scenario analysis
  • Conduct comprehensive quantitative analysis to support model development
  • Build and maintain scalable analytical tools and workflows
  • Analyze modeling challenges associated with credit portfolios
  • Monitor model performance and recommend enhancements
  • Prepare clear documentation and presentations for stakeholders

Benefits

  • Comprehensive health and wellness benefits
  • Savings and retirement programs
  • Paid time off and banking discounts
  • Career development opportunities
  • Rewards and recognition programs
Full Job Description

Work Location:

Toronto, Ontario, Canada

Hours:

37.5

Line of Business:

Analytics, Insights, & Artificial Intelligence

Pay Details:

81,600 - 115,200 CAD

TD is committed to providing fair and equitable compensation opportunities to all colleagues. Growth opportunities and skill development are defining features of the colleague experience at TD. Our compensation policies and practices have been designed to allow colleagues to progress through the salary range over time as they progress in their role. The base pay actually offered may vary based upon the candidate's skills and experience, job-related knowledge, geographic location, and other specific business and organizational needs.

As a candidate, you are encouraged to ask compensation related questions and have an open dialogue with your recruiter who can provide you more specific details for this role.

Job Description:

Department Overview

The Non-Retail Model Development (NRMD) group is part of the Model Development department within Corporate Transformation and Operations. It is responsible for methodology development related to credit risk and operational risk in non-retail Wholesale and Commercial businesses. These methodologies cover Basel III credit parameters, including PD, LGD, and EAD/UGD, regulatory and economic capital for AIRB credit risk, IFRS 9 allowances, and Risk Ratings. Model Development is responsible for developing mathematical methodologies, building software prototypes, and working closely with other functions throughout the bank to implement system solutions.

Within this mandate, the U.S. Non-Retail Model Development team focuses on developing, enhancing, and implementing credit risk methodologies for U.S. Commercial portfolios, including Point-in-Time risk parameter models, CECL/IFRS 9 allowance methodologies, and stress testing / forecasting frameworks. The team partners closely with Risk, Finance, Technology, Model Validation, and Governance stakeholders to deliver robust, forward-looking credit risk solutions that support business decision-making, regulatory requirements, and risk management objectives.


Role Overview

The position is in the U.S. Non-Retail Model Development group.

As a Senior Quantitative Analytics Analyst, you will contribute to the development, enhancement, monitoring, and implementation of credit risk parameter models and stress testing / forecasting methodologies for U.S. Commercial portfolios. The role supports Point-in-Time PD, LGD, and EAD models, CECL/IFRS 9 allowance methodologies, and scenario-based forecasting frameworks. You will work with complex commercial credit datasets, evaluate model performance and limitations, develop scalable analytical tools, and help translate quantitative insights into clear documentation and stakeholder-ready recommendations.

This position provides excellent learning and career opportunities in a highly professional and motivated team environment, with exposure to high-impact U.S. Commercial portfolio modeling initiatives, senior stakeholders, evolving regulatory expectations, and opportunities to develop deep expertise in credit risk model development, forecasting methodologies, advanced analytics, and modern modeling technologies.


Detailed Responsibilities
  • Support the design, development, enhancement, testing, implementation, and monitoring of Point-in-Time PD, LGD, and EAD models, CECL/IFRS 9 allowance methodologies, and stress testing / forecasting models for U.S. Commercial portfolios.
  • Develop and enhance credit risk stress testing and forecasting methodologies, including scenario analysis, macroeconomic driver assessment, sensitivity testing, attribution analysis, and impact assessment.
  • Conduct quantitative analysis to support model development activities, including data preparation, segmentation, feature construction, variable assessment, model estimation, calibration, benchmarking, sensitivity analysis, back-testing, attribution analysis, and impact assessment.
  • Build, maintain, and improve reusable analytical tools, scalable code-based workflows, and reporting capabilities to support model development, testing, monitoring, documentation, and implementation activities.
  • Analyze portfolio characteristics and modeling challenges associated with U.S. Commercial portfolios, including data limitations, portfolio heterogeneity, obligor concentration, economic cyclicality, low-default behavior, and expert judgment considerations where applicable.
  • Assess model performance through monitoring, diagnostics, sensitivity testing, back-testing, and evaluation of emerging risk drivers, and recommend enhancements where appropriate.
  • Prepare clear and well-structured model documentation, technical analyses, presentations, and supporting materials that explain methodology, assumptions, limitations, results, and business implications to both technical and non-technical audiences.
  • Support compliance with TD Model Risk Management standards, relevant regulatory expectations, and Data Governance requirements, including documentation of assumptions, limitations, controls, model performance metrics, and data quality considerations.
  • Contribute to model enhancements, redevelopment activities, and new model development initiatives, while identifying opportunities to improve methodologies, analytical processes, documentation standards, and recurring reporting workflows through automation and scalable solutions.
  • Partner with stakeholders across Risk, Finance, Technology, Governance, Model Validation, and Business teams to support model development, review, implementation, issue remediation, and ongoing model use.
  • Evaluate and recommend enhancements to legacy methodologies, processes, and analytical approaches while balancing model performance, interpretability, governance requirements, and implementation considerations.
  • Contribute to research and controlled experimentation involving advanced analytics, machine learning, and AI-enabled tools where appropriate, while considering explainability, documentation, governance, and model risk requirements.

Job Requirements
  • Graduate degree in Statistics, Mathematics, Financial Engineering, Economics, Data Science, Computer Science, or another quantitative discipline.
  • Experience or strong academic exposure in credit risk modeling, loss forecasting, econometric modeling, statistical modeling, or related quantitative analysis.
  • Knowledge of credit risk parameters and frameworks, including PD, LGD, EAD, CECL/IFRS 9, stress testing / forecasting, and Basel capital concepts.
  • Strong programming and data analysis skills, preferably in Python and SQL; experience with SAS, R, MATLAB, or similar tools is an asset.
  • Experience working with complex datasets and applying quantitative methods to support model development, testing, monitoring, or reporting.
  • Strong analytical, problem-solving, written communication, and verbal communication skills.
  • Demonstrated initiative, attention to detail, and ability to deliver high-quality analytical work within defined timelines.
  • Familiarity with model risk management, data governance, automation, machine learning, or AI-enabled productivity tools is an asset.

Differentiating Capabilities / Preferred Experience
  • Demonstrated ownership mindset, curiosity, and ability to independently progress assigned analytical workstreams in complex or ambiguous environments.
  • Experience improving analytical workflows through automation, reusable code, standardized templates, or scalable reporting solutions.
  • Exposure to machine learning, advanced analytics, or AI-enabled tools, with practical understanding of explainability, documentation, governance, and model risk considerations.
  • Ability to identify model, data, process, or documentation gaps and recommend practical enhancements.
  • Strong communication skills with ability to translate quantitative analysis into actionable insights, limitations, and recommendations.
  • Willingness to constructively challenge legacy approaches and contribute to innovative, controlled, and regulator-friendly model development practices.

Our Total Rewards Package
Our Total Rewards package reflects the investments we make in our colleagues to help them and their families achieve their financial, physical, and mental well-being goals. Total Rewards at TD includes a base salary, variable compensation, and several other key plans such as health and well-being benefits, savings and retirement programs, paid time off, banking benefits and discounts, career development, and reward and recognition programs.

Additional Information:
We’re delighted that you’re considering building a career with TD. Through regular development conversations, training programs, and a competitive benefits plan, we’re committed to providing the support our colleagues need to thrive both at work and at home.

Please be advised that this job opportunity is subject to provincial regulation for employment purposes. It is imperative to acknowledge that each province or territory within the jurisdiction of Canada may have its own set of regulations, requirements.


Colleague Development

If you’re interested in a specific career path or are looking to build certain skills, we want to help you succeed. You’ll have regular career, development, and performance conversations with your manager, as well as access to an online learning platform and a variety of mentoring programs to help you unlock future opportunities.

If you’re passionate about helping clients and building deep, lasting relationships, TD offers diverse career paths where you can grow your expertise and make a meaningful impact.  

We're committed to your success and foster a respectful workplace where diverse perspectives are valued, everyone has fair opportunities to grow, and you can unlock your full potential to achieve your career goals. Here at TD, we hire and develop the best.

Training & Onboarding
We will provide training and onboarding sessions to ensure that you’ve got everything you need to succeed in your new role.

Interview Process 
We’ll reach out to candidates of interest to schedule an interview. We do our best to communicate outcomes to all applicants by email or phone call.

Language Requirement (Quebec only):

Sans Objet

About TD Bank

TD Securities offers a range of advisory and capital market services to its clients. The company's range of services includes research, investment banking, capital markets, and global transaction banking. Research consists of commodity and equity research. Investment banking consists of mergers, acquisitions, industry expertise, and credit origination. Global transaction banking consists of trade finance, cash management, and correspondent banking. TD Securities was founded in 1855 and is based in Ontario.

TD Bank Careers

Join the vibrant team at TD Bank, one of North America's leading financial services organizations, where innovation, leadership, and growth go hand in hand. At TD Bank, we are committed to fostering a culture of diversity and inclusion, making it an ideal place for ambitious professionals to thrive. Work You’ll Do At TD Bank, your professional journey is bolstered by a robust support system. From your first interview to every career milestone, you will find opportunities for growth and leadership. Our team is dedicated to helping you develop the skills necessary for success in the ever-evolving financial sector. TD Bank offers a variety of job opportunities across multiple fields, from customer service to investment banking. Each position at TD Bank is a chance to contribute to our culture of innovation and exceptional client service. Internship Programs Kickstart your career with a TD Bank internship. Our programs provide invaluable industry exposure and hands-on experience, making them a perfect starting point for students and recent graduates eager to make their mark in the banking industry. Interns at TD Bank enjoy the unique opportunity to work alongside seasoned professionals, gaining insights that are crucial for future employment. Benefits and Growth TD Bank is deeply committed to the well-being and continuous growth of our team members. We offer competitive benefits packages that cover health, finance, and family care. Our employees enjoy comprehensive health insurance, retirement plans, and generous paid time off, among other perks. Moreover, TD Bank encourages professional development through various training programs, including leadership development and diversity training. These initiatives ensure that our team remains at the forefront of industry standards and best practices. Join Our Team Explore the numerous career paths available at TD Bank and discover how your skills and interests align with our mission. We are actively hiring and continually looking for talented individuals who are passionate about banking and customer service. Networking and Professional Development At TD Bank, we believe in the power of networking and collaboration. Our employees have access to a wide range of networking events, workshops, and seminars that promote career development and professional growth. These platforms not only enhance your professional skills but also expand your industry connections. Stay Connected Keep up to date with the latest at TD Bank Careers by subscribing to our job alert emails. Tailor your subscription to match your career preferences and get the latest news, insider tips, and job opportunities delivered straight to your inbox. Explore job opportunities at TD Bank and be part of a team that values hard work, creativity, and a diverse workplace culture. Your next great career move is just a click away. SEARCH TD BANK JOBS Join us at TD Bank and let your ambition lead you to a rewarding career filled with opportunities to learn, grow, and innovate.
Learn more about TD Bank
Size
90,000 employees
Market Cap
$117.9 billion
Industry
Net Income
-$6.9 million
5 Year Trend
+6.6%

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