In a lengthy report published by Harvard University back in October, researchers indicated that an effective COVID-19 vaccine and some form of stimulus relief would be the most instructive predictors of overall job health. According to analysts, we have now reached that moment and are beginning to see the promise of that hiring boom come to life.
“The Coming Jobs Boom”
“The main reason that we expect a hiring boom this year is that reopening, fiscal stimulus, and pent-up savings should fuel very strong demand growth,” said Goldman Sach’s chief economist Jan Hatzius in a new paper titled, “The Coming Jobs Boom.”
“Another key reason we expect a quick labor market recovery is that two-thirds of remaining pandemic job losses are in highly virus-sensitive sectors, where employment should rebound as the economy fully reopens. The sharp increase in the virus-depressed leisure and hospitality category in the February employment report provided an early hint of things to come.”
All things considered, Hatzius contends that unemployment could fall as low as 4% in the US before the end of the year. He adds that some sectors may experience even lower unemployment rates, depending on the success of economic policy prescriptions issued earlier this month. Hatzius isn’t alone in this projection.
Industries that will boom
In another new report called, Linkedin: Jobs on the Rise in 2021, the following professions were identified as the most promising:
Medical Industries
Top Titles: Medical Screener, Respiratory Therapist, Health Coach, Home Health Aid, Paramedic, Pharmacy Technician, Healthcare Consultant, and Patient Care Assistant/Technician
Top Regions: New York City metropolitan area, San Francisco Bay Area, Atlanta metropolitan area
Digital Transformation
Top Titles: Machine Learning Researcher, Specialist Social Media Marketing Specialist, Digital Specialist, Digital Marketing Director, Digital Marketing Specialist, Digital Coordinator, Search Engine Optimization Specialist, Social Media Manager, Social Media Director, and Social Media Coordinator
Top Regions: San Francisco Bay Area, Denver metropolitan area, Austin, Texas metropolitan area
Education professionals
Top Titles: Teaching Assistant, Academic Tutor, Middle School Teacher, Curriculum Developer, Educational Consultant, Instructional Designer, Spanish Teacher, Social Studies Teacher, Mathematics Teacher, and Pod Teacher
Top Regions: New York City metropolitan area, Greater Phoenix area, Greater Boston
Business development and sales professionals
Top Titles: Strategic Advisor, Inbound Sales Specialist, Sales Operations Specialist, Business Development Consultant, Business Development Representative, and Sales Consultant
Top Regions: New York City metropolitan area, Detroit metropolitan area, Columbus, Ohio metropolitan area
E-commerce trades and Mortgage Loan Officer positions were additionally listed among the careers currently experiencing exorbitant growth. All of the positions listed above are expected to continue growing as the year progresses.
This trend seems to be impacting most demographics to varying degrees.
“We see really strong growth potentially starting in the second quarter,” says Barclays economist Jonathan Millar. “It’s a pretty strong year.”
“The vaccine will inspire a lot of confidence,” adds Gus Faucher, chief economist of PNC Financial Services Group.
A growing number of financial experts are saying the US could return to the record job numbers recorded in the early—pre-pandemic—months of 2020 before the end of 2022.
In February of 2020, the unemployment rate was reported around 3.5%, which was the lowest rate reported in over 50 years.
When the novel coronavirus penetrated the US, however, unemployment surged to 14.8% by April.
Just before coronavirus cases began to decline and the Biden Administration signed off on a $1.9 trillion stimulus package, job loss fell to 6.2%.
Sectors disproportionately affected by the COVID-19 pandemic appear to be enjoying employment gains as well, just at a much slower pace. This may be the starkest in the hospitality industry.
“There were clear signs that restaurants had begun resuming activity after slowing in late 2020 and that came through in today’s report,” Citigroup economist Andrew Hollenhorst explains.
“The continued rise in seated dining activity suggests that this will continue to be a source of support for jobs in coming months.”
A report featured in the Harvard Business Review suggests that there are events related to the pandemic that actually pose a threat to job growth in the US.
“First, the skills needed in many roles have an increasingly short shelf life, owing in part to more-frequent and disruptive technological breakthroughs,” the authors wrote. “Second, the talent pools recruiters have routinely tapped are becoming outmoded. Highly gifted candidates can now be found outside traditional talent clusters, such as leading universities and technical colleges. More and more people are acquiring critical skills informally on the job—or even in their own basements.”
The report went on to state that companies can weather these trends by hiring for potential as opposed to experience in familiarizing themselves with the values that mean the most to new candidates.
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