Can this calculator really determine your risk of dementia?

If you were going to develop dementia, would you want to know as soon as possible? Well, now that may be a possibility. Researchers at the University of Ottawa Hospital in Canada have created the Project Big Life Dementia Calculator, which is supposedly able to predict your risk of being diagnosed with dementia in the next five years. But how accurate and specific is this new tool? We tried it.

Can a calculator really tell you if you’re at risk for dementia?

Using data from 50,000 Ontarians ages 55 and older who aren’t living in any sort of long-term care or retirement facility, researchers developed a predictive algorithm called the Dementia Population Risk Tool (DemPoRT), which is the basis for this tool.

In conjunction with Bruyère Research Institute and ICES, the University of Ottawa uses variables common among the groups within the population segment to determine if one has any sort of predisposed risk to dementia.
These variables include gender, sociodemographics, behaviors and lifestyle choices, general physical and mental health, and overall functioning.

The tool was originally tested on a sample size of 25,000 and was reported to perform “well overall.” More information about the DemPoRT algorithm can be found in the study protocol on Project Big Life’s website. The website also contains other calculators based upon determining factors, such as surveys on life expectancy, likelihoods of heart attacks or strokes, high sodium levels, and planning tools for aging.

Though the data is thorough, the survey itself treads the line between confusingly complicated and overly simplistic. Determining factors like sex, age, education level, number of languages spoken, community engagement, and cultural background are all taken into account, along with marital status and wealth.

While it might seem like these are all irrelevant factors to dementia, one must remember that this tool is used for data collection and amalgamation in addition to providing information for respondents. Additionally, there are correlations between wealth and dementia, and even education level and dementia.

How it works

As for the questions about one’s physical state, it’s a bit like filling out a questionnaire at the doctor’s office. In addition to tracking height and weight, the survey also asks some more complex questions of the respondents, such as how many fruits, vegetables, glasses of fruit juice and potatoes you’ve had within the past week.

You’ll also need to report the amount of stress you suffer from, the hours of vigorous, moderate, and light activity you do (or don’t do), and if you have conditions like COPD, high blood pressure, epilepsy, anxiety, or a history of strokes.

At the end of the survey, you’re given a percentage that indicates your likelihood of being diagnosed with dementia in the next five years. Additionally, if there are any issues that you could be confronting that might decrease your risk of dementia, you’ll be given behavioral modifiers.

Suggestions come in the form of diet advice, such as switching to a Mediterranean diet, which the study specifies contains “plenty of fruit and vegetables, legumes, whole grains, nuts, olive oil and fish, and limiting processed foods, meat, sweets, and dairy.”

They also advise becoming more social by volunteering if you report yourself as someone who isn’t interested in getting involved in community activities.

Is it worth trying the calculator for yourself?

Unfortunately, while the research is accurate and interesting, the dementia calculator itself isn’t as edifying as one might hope. It’s relatively widely known that a healthy diet, good exercise, refraining from smoking, and keeping a tight network of friends and family are all factors that will decrease the chances of getting dementia.

If all this is news to you, try taking the survey and getting some pointers on how to keep your synapses firing. But if you’ve counted up your potatoes for the week and feel confident that your brain is still sharp, you can skip the dementia calculator and spend your time doing mental gymnastics elsewhere.