What are the chances of actually getting Coronavirus?

Back in late January, The World Health Organization classified the novel coronavirus (Covid-19) as a “Public Health Emergency of International Concern.” Since then, the rhetoric surrounding the virus’s threat level status has grown increasingly ambiguous. 

Microsoft CEO, Bill Gates recently intimated the infection’s grim potential in the New England Journal of Medicine, writing, “Covid-19 is transmitted quite efficiently. The average infected person spreads the disease to two or three others — an exponential rate of increase. There is also strong evidence that it can be transmitted by people who are just mildly ill … Covid-19 has already caused 10 times as many cases as SARS in a quarter of the time.”

Gates went on in the same report to draw similarities between the nature of Covid-19’s development and  “the once in a century pathogen” feared to bring civilization to its knees.

The Trump Administration has maintained the contrary view. After appointing Vice President Mike Pence with international response operations with respect to the health crisis, the White House has made an effort to reduce global hysteria first and foremost.

The vice president sat down with CNN over the weekend to stress the healthy coordination between the administration and CDC officials.

“This weekend, more than 15,000 testing kits have been released. Also, the FDA has approved a testing regiment that state and local officials can be using. We’re addressing it, we’re leaning into it,” Pence said during the interview.  “it is not necessary for Americans to go out and buy masks.”

There is a plurality of motivations keeping WHO and elected officials from branding Covid-19 with pandemic status—though I might caution against prioritizing cynical interpretations. Yes, we’re presently in the midst of a fraught primary race and yes commerce ultimately benefits from consumers on high alert but there are bigger factors at play.

Panic is a corrosive entity; bureaucracy and misinformation the match and flame to the Global Economy’s incendiary deterioration. Even in the plausible event that Covid-19 becomes the terror it’s already being purported as, surging hysteria bears the potential to eclipse valuable preemptive resources.

“We need to go into the numbers, we need to go into the facts, and do the right thing instead of panicking,” Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, the director-general of WHO said Sunday during a panel discussion at the King Salman Humanitarian Aid Center’s International Humanitarian Forum in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. “We need to continue to be rational. Irrationality doesn’t help. We need to deal with the facts.”

Taking only the substantive updates published daily by the CDC into account, mild-caution appears to be the most appropriate reaction for otherwise healthy citizens within the US. The website reports: 

  • For the general American public, who are unlikely to be exposed to this virus at this time, the immediate health risk from COVID-19 is considered low.
  • People in communities where ongoing community spread with the virus that causes COVID-19 has been reported are at elevated though still relatively low risk of exposure.
  • Healthcare workers caring for patients with COVID-19 are at elevated risk of exposure.
  • Close contacts of persons with COVID-19 also are at elevated risk of exposure.
  • Travelers returning from affected international locations where community spread is occurring also are at elevated risk of exposure.

The virus’s transmission mimics a community spread which means the impacted include some who are not sure how or where they became infected.

If you experience fever, cough, or shortness of breath consult a medical professional intimately. If the virus goes untreated it can lead to pneumonia, severe acute respiratory syndrome, kidney failure and in some instances, even death.

Risk survey for every demographic

As of March 2, The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reports the number of confirmed US infections to total 86. Forty-five of these were among the individuals aboard the Diamond Princess cruise ship.

So far six patients have succumbed to the virus within the US. The first was a middle-aged man and the second was a man aged 70—both suffered from underlying conditions.

The first confirmed New York case is a 39-year-old woman who recently traveled to Iran. According to Governor Andrew Cuomo, the patient is currently experiencing various respiratory symptoms but her condition remains mild.

“We said early on it was a case of not if, but when,” Cuomo said at a news conference. “This is New York, we’re a gateway to the world. To see all these cases around the world, around the country, of course, we are going to have cases  here.” The Governor is confident that the risk of contraction remains fairly low for New York residents.

Meanwhile, the global death toll has risen to 3,048. The vast majority of deceased patients are halved between Mainland China and The Hubei Province (2,900 and 2,700 respectively.) Iran has reported 66 deaths, Italy 34 and South Korea 26.

According to a new U.S. consumer survey* conducted by Bospar PR, more than half (55.3%) of Americans are concerned about contracting the novel coronavirus this year, and 49.4% of Americans are planning to cancel trips as a direct result.

  • 40.2% went into a full-panic mode when the media first reported outbreaks in China,
  • 32.8% when the financial markets started crashing
  • 23.4% when Trump claimed the number of COVID-19 cases in the U.S. is “going very substantially down, not up.”
  • An additional 52.9% believe open offices will lead to an increase in coronavirus infections
  • 51.4% believe viruses like COVID-19 and the flu will lead to companies adopting virtual offices
  • 41% believe their open office will be a hotbed of infection
  • 37.7% believe viruses like the coronavirus (flu) will lead to open offices going away
  • 35.9% believe companies should have employees work from home to avoid the spread of the coronavirus

Precaution is our best defense which includes deactivating pathogen neurosis whenever possible. As the epidemic takes shape Ladders has called upon a stable of credible experts to advise the public accordingly.

Be sure to reference our health page for ensuing updates.