The Senior Analyst, Margin Forecasting owns the analytical engine behind merchandise margin projection and variance explanation. This role builds and maintains the driver-based margin forecast, quantifies the volume, rate, and mix components of margin performance, and provides the early warning that allows the business to act before results are locked in.
Partnering closely with Merchandise Finance, Merchants, Sourcing, and Pricing, the Senior Analyst translates operational activity - cost changes, promotional plans, mix shifts, markdown decisions - into a forward view of realized merchandise margin.
This role is designed for a rigorous analytical professional who enjoys building models that are both technically sound and commercially useful, and who is comfortable presenting findings to senior leadership.
Key ResponsibilitiesMargin Forecasting- Own the margin forecast model: build and maintain a driver-based merchandise margin forecast spanning initial markup, landed cost, markdown, mix, and shrink
- Drive the rolling forecast cadence: update and reissue the margin forecast on an established cadence, incorporating the latest cost, pricing, and demand inputs
- Quantify drivers: decompose margin performance and forecast changes into volume, rate, and mix, with clear attribution to specific business actions
- Model scenarios: quantify the margin impact of proposed pricing actions, cost changes, promotional plans, and assortment shifts
Variance Analysis & Reporting- Own margin variance explanation: produce clear, well-structured bridges explaining margin actuals versus plan, forecast, and prior year
- Surface risks and opportunities: proactively identify emerging margin risks and quantified opportunities; escalate with recommended actions
- Deliver executive reporting: prepare margin performance packages and executive dashboards that translate complex analysis into a clear narrative
- Maintain analytical integrity: ensure consistent definitions, reliable data lineage, and reproducible methodology across all margin reporting
Cross-Functional Partnership- Partner with Sourcing: incorporate landed cost movement, supplier negotiations, and total cost of ownership inputs into the margin view
- Partner with Pricing: quantify the realized margin impact of pricing and promotional decisions and feed results back into future recommendations
- Partner with Merchandise Finance: ensure the margin forecast reconciles cleanly to the financial plan and the corporate forecast
- Support planning cycles: provide margin analytics that inform the annual operating plan and the merchandise long-range plan
Success MetricsIn the first 12 months, the Margin Forecasting role will be evaluated on:
- Forecast Accuracy: Demonstrated improvement in merchandise margin forecast accuracy against actual results
- Explanatory Power: Margin variance consistently explained by identified drivers rather than unattributed residual
- Decision Support: Margin analysis demonstrably informing pricing, sourcing, and assortment decisions on a recurring basis
Qualifications:Required- Bachelor's degree in Finance, Accounting, Economics, Statistics, or a related field
- 4-6 years of experience in financial analysis, merchandise finance, retail analytics, or a comparable analytical role
- Strong understanding of retail margin mechanics, including initial markup, landed cost, markdown, and realized margin
- Advanced Excel and financial modeling skills; proficiency with SQL strongly preferred
- Demonstrated ability to build driver-based forecast models and explain variance with analytical precision
- Strong communication skills, with the ability to present findings clearly to finance and non-finance leadership
- High standards for accuracy and analytical integrity, with the ability to move quickly without sacrificing either
Preferred- Experience with enterprise planning tools such as Anaplan, Hyperion, or similar
- Furniture, home, or big-ticket retail experience
- Exposure to Power BI, Tableau, or comparable visualization tools
Expected Base Pay Not Including Potential Commissions, Incentive, Bonus, etc. Opportunities:$80,000 - $100,000
