Operations Research Analyst • Strategic Analysis and Analytic Innovation Division (SAID)

JOA#: GS 2026-1515-120 (SAID)

Department: Department of War (DOW)

Agency: Office of the Secretary of War (OSW)

Hiring Organization: Cost Assessment and Program Evaluation (CAPE)

Open Period: 9/30/2026 • 10/27/2026

Pay Scale & Grade: GS-12/13/14/15

Salary Range: $102,415 - $197,200

Series & Appointment Type: 1515 Operations Research, Permanent - Schedule B Excepted Service

Location: Pentagon, Arlington, VA

Work Schedule: Full Time

Clearance Requirements: Must be able to obtain and maintain a Top Secret/SCI

Citizenship Requirement: Open to all US Citizens

Relocation expenses reimbursed: No

Duties and Responsibilities :

Depending on the grade level and specific billet, selectees will be responsible for:

Setting the Methods and Rigor Standard: Developing, defining, and validating the study-design, statistical, and assurance rules that determine what makes an analysis defensible: sound design, evidence, provenance, and stated uncertainty.

Building Analytic Tools: Creating, testing, and documenting the tools and models that embody approved methods, for DASH to integrate and operate on the War Data Platform and for analysts across CAPE to run.

Model and Algorithm Catalogue: Developing and maintaining a catalogue of modern mathematical models and algorithms that improve campaign and warfighting analysis, with the conditions under which each is valid.

Assurance Review: Conducting independent reviews to determine and document whether CAPE analyses meet applicable methods and assurance standards before senior leaders use them, including any residual limitations or unresolved uncertainties. For AI-assisted work, applying verification protocols under which no tool or product that goes to senior leaders is validated by its own developer.

Conducting Code-Based Analytics: Conducting analysis and tool development in programming or statistical software suites such as R, Python, MATLAB, or GAMS.

Mentorship (GS-14/15): Mentoring junior methodologists in method, documentation, and assurance practice.

Specialized duties (each senior methodologist owns one):

• Wargaming and Campaign Analysis : Setting the standards for the wargames and campaign analyses CAPE uses and judging whether external products meet them. Building and running simple, fast models of how U.S. and adversary forces interact, which CPAD and other divisions use to frame and interpret resource alternatives. Designing methods that let an analysis account for an adversary who adapts to the option under study.
• Exploratory Modeling and Scenario Discovery: Designing ensemble experiments, sampling strategies, experiment frameworks, and discovery analytics to systematically and defensibly map decision trade spaces. Leads the build of the emulation layer of CAPE's mission analysis environment: the design of experiments, the validation standard against held-out runs, out-of-domain detection, and adaptive batch selection.
• Emulation and Surrogate Modeling : Fitting, documenting, and validating the surrogate models (emulators) that stand in for expensive simulations, to the experiment design the exploratory modeling seat sets -- each with a version of record and a stated validation domain -- and building the pre-built analytics on them: sensitivity, marginal gain, tipping-point and feasibility maps, and trade spaces.
• Optimization and Operations Research : Creating formal decision framing, value models, utility functions, and optimization tools for use by CAPE analytic teams evaluating complex defense portfolios.
• Inference, Forecasting, and Structured Elicitation: Designing empirical research designs, forecasting methods, and structured elicitation methods to rigorously validate claims drawn from observed or sparse data.
• AI Methods and Verification: Identifying effective uses of AI and emerging technologies in CAPE's methods and tools, and developing, testing, and institutionalizing the verification and validation methods that confirm what AI produces. The work follows A&I's operating rule: AI and automation may support high-volume analytical tasks. Analysts remain responsible for validating inputs, making substantive judgments, and approving final products.

Qualifications :

Basic Requirements :

A degree in operations research from an accredited college/university; or at least 24 semester hours in a combination of operations research, mathematics, probability, statistics, mathematical logic, science, or subject-matter courses requiring substantial competence in college-level mathematics or statistics. At least 3 of the 24 semester hours must have been in calculus.

Required [PC1] Skills:

Your qualifications will be evaluated on your knowledge, skills, abilities, and competencies in the following areas:

Quantitative Analytics: Mathematical and statistical reasoning appropriate to the grade sought, including experience applying and documenting quantitative methods and implementing analysis or tools in code. Applicants should demonstrate depth in at least one of the specialized domains below; breadth across all domains is not required.

Methodological Tradecraft (Specialized Domain Depth): Demonstrated experience in at least one of the following domains:

• Wargaming and Campaign Analysis Standard-Setting: Design of threat-representative, adaptive adversary simulations and coarse resourcing interaction models.
• Exploratory Modeling: Design of experiments (DoE) over high-dimensional computational models, scenario discovery, and parameter uncertainty management.
• Emulation and Surrogate Modeling: Fitting and validating surrogate models of computational simulations (Gaussian-process, tree-ensemble, or neural surrogates), validation against held-out runs, out-of-domain detection, and adaptive sampling.
• Mathematical Optimization: Formulation of multi-objective linear/nonlinear programming, formal decision-framing, and multi-attribute utility models.
• Statistical Inference: Rigorous data-driven forecasting, Bayesian inference, and formal structured elicitation techniques.
• AI Verification and Validation: Deep understanding of AI/ML architectures, verification of generative outputs, bias detection, and adversarial testing.

Collaboration: Ability to work with and collaborate with individuals across a broad spectrum of internal and external organizations, including academia, think tanks, defense laboratories, and international partners, to import and validate new methods.

Communication: Ability to translate complex mathematical concepts, scientific methodologies, and analytic limitations into concise, plain language through varied types of written communication to include emails, memos, PowerPoint briefs, white papers, and full reports. Oral communications may include formal presentations or briefings in front of large groups of senior officials.

Specialized Experience : To qualify at a grade, you must have at least one year of specialized experience (12 months at 40 hours per week) equivalent to at least the next lower grade level, performing the duties and demonstrating the competencies listed for that grade:

• GS-12 Qualifications (Methodologist): Under the guidance of senior analysts, applying analytic, mathematical, or statistical methods to plan, coordinate, and execute segments of studies; and communicating effectively with colleagues; OR a Ph.D. or equivalent doctoral degree.
• GS-13 Qualifications (Methodologist): Experience applying statistical and operations research methods to segments of studies under general direction; implementing and testing analytic models in code; documenting methods, assumptions, and uncertainty; and communicating results to internal and external colleagues.
• GS-14 Qualifications (Senior Methodologist or AI Specialist): Experience equivalent to GS-13 independently developing, testing, or validating analytic methods or tools; documenting assumptions, provenance, limitations, and uncertainty; and demonstrating advanced expertise in at least one announced specialization. AI Specialist applicants must demonstrate experience evaluating AI or machine-learning outputs for validity, bias, robustness, or adversarial failure.
• GS-15 Qualifications (Senior Methodologist or AI Specialist): Experience equivalent to GS-14 leading methodological development or independent analytic assurance; establishing standards used by multiple study teams or organizations; providing authoritative consultation on at least one announced specialization; and communicating methodological findings and limitations to senior decision-makers.

Volunteer Work Experiences : You can also receive credit for all qualifying experience, including volunteer experience. Volunteer work refers to paid and unpaid experience, including volunteer work done through National Service Programs and other organizations (e.g., professional; philanthropic; religious; spiritual; community; student and social).

How to Apply:

Required Documents:

1. Resume:

a. IN DESCRIBING YOUR EXPERIENCE, BE CLEAR, SPECIFIC AND DETAILED. WE MAY NOT MAKE ASSUMPTIONS REGARDING YOUR EXPERIENCE .

b. Include your name, address, and contact information, and for each position the hours worked per week and the dates of employment or volunteer service (month/year to month/year, or month/year to present). One year of specialized experience equals 2,087 hours, or 52 weeks at 40 hours per week; part-time hours are prorated. Experience that does not state exact hours per week, or lists them as "varies", will not be credited. For additional information see: How do I write a resume for a federal job

c. Do not include any photos and Personally Identifiable Information (i.e., Social Security Number, Birthdate) on your resume.

d. Resume must be limited to 2 pages and a minimum size 10 font. Please save your resume as a PDF file to preserve the 2-page length.

2. Transcripts : To count toward the qualification requirements, education must come from an institution accredited by an accrediting body recognized by the U.S. Department of Education. A copy of a diploma alone is not sufficient.

a. Foreign Education: Education completed at a foreign college or university may be used to meet the requirements if you provide proof that the credentials have been evaluated as at least equivalent to those earned in an accredited U.S. program.

3. Writing Sample: Demonstrate your analytic ability and writing skills in one page, addressing the following: Choose one prompt: (1) Identify an analytic method or standard that defense resourcing analysis applies poorly, explain the resulting decision risk, and propose a testable improvement; or (2) describe how you would verify an AI-generated analytic finding before it reaches a senior decision-maker, including prov