About the Role:
The forecasting team within the Commercial Analytics and Operations group at Neurocrine Biosciences is responsible for accurately forecasting inline and soon-to-launch products, including detailed quarterly expectations, current year forecasts and projections for long-range planning. The Senior Manager of Forecasting will report to the Director of Forecasting and Analytics and will be initially responsible for managing the forecasting and reporting activities for inline products. The forecasting team frequently interacts with senior and executive management and works cross-functionally with many other departments. To be successful, the individual in this role must leverage his/her functional expertise, product knowledge, communication skills, leadership and influencing skills, executive presence, etc. to help drive the continued success of inline products.

Your Contributions (include, but are not limited to):

• Collaborate with key business partners to develop short- and long-range forecasts, integrating emerging market dynamics and competitive assessments
• Leverage primary market research, secondary data sources, patient-based analytics, and commercial performance metrics to develop robust and evidence-based forecasting models
• Drive continuous improvement of forecasting methodologies, analytical tools, and business processes to improve forecast accuracy, efficiency, and decision-making
• Collaborate with Marketing and Commercial Insights & Analytics to identify research initiatives, competitive intelligence needs, and analytical opportunities that strengthen forecast quality and business understanding
• Develop and maintain advanced forecasting and scenario-planning models, including sensitivity analyses and Monte Carlo simulations, to assess uncertainty and quantify business risks and opportunities
• Prepare and present forecasting analyses, key assumptions, risks, opportunities, and recommendations to senior leadership and executive audiences
• Monitor forecast performance and accuracy through ongoing business reviews, dashboards, and analytics; identify key drivers of variance and implement model enhancements where appropriate
• Support Incentive Compensation process by translating forecasts into actionable sales targets
• Work with the Commercial Analytics and Advanced Analytics functions on ad hoc requests using patient-level and national-level datasets and integrate findings into models
• Regularly communicate with senior executives and strategic partners to report analytical findings and their impacts on the forecasts, inventory management and key performance metrics/indicators
• Cultivate strong collaborative partnerships throughout the organization and serve as a trusted resource for forecasting expertise and business insights
• Support enterprise planning activities including Annual Operating Plan (AOP), Long-Range Planning (LRP), Supply & Operations Planning (S&OP), and portfolio planning processes

Requirements:

• BA/BS in business, finance or STEM discipline with 8+ years of experience OR
• MBA with 6+ years of experience in forecasting, market research, consulting or other analytical work in the pharma, biotech or life sciences industries
• Ability to balance exceptional technical expertise with strong strategic thinking and practical business acumen
• Advanced proficiency in Microsoft Office (specifically PowerPoint and Excel) is required; proficiency with simulation software (e.g., Crystal Ball, [redacted], etc.) a plus
• Strong understanding of the pharmaceutical sales cycle from wholesaler to patient
• Familiarity with pharmaceutical data sources (e.g., IQVIA, Value Centric, etc.) and ability to communicate data insights and concepts with clarity and passion
• Familiarity with patient and TRx forecasting and modeling techniques that support various types of strategic analytics (e.g., forecasting, business analytics, sales incentive modeling, etc.) is preferred
• Candidates with strong analytical capabilities without forecasting experience are also encouraged to apply
• Persuasive communication/influencing skills and executive presence required, including the ability to present quantitative data in a clear and effective manner to all levels of management

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The annual base salary we reasonably expect to pay is $158,100.00-$216,000.00. Individual pay decisions depend on various factors, such as primary work location, complexity and responsibility of role, job duties/requirements, and relevant experience and skills. In addition, this position offers an annual bonus with a target of 30% of the earned base salary and eligibility to participate in our equity based long term incentive program. Benefits offered include a retirement savings plan (with company match), paid vacation, holiday and personal days, paid caregiver/parental and medical leave, and health benefits to include medical, prescription drug, dental and vision coverage in accordance with the terms and conditions of the applicable plans.