Manifest Solutions is currently seeking a Monte Carlo Project Risk Analyst for a remote position. Must reside in one of the following states: OH, TX, LA, OK, WV, VA, IN, MI, KY, AR, TN.
- Develop and maintain probabilistic cost and schedule risk models for capital projects.
- Define appropriate uncertainty ranges, probability distributions, assumptions, and correlations for cost and schedule variables.
- Perform Monte Carlo simulations to quantify potential project cost and schedule outcomes.
- Analyze simulation outputs, including P50, P80, and P90 cost forecasts and completion dates.
- Assess project contingency requirements based on quantitative risk analysis.
- Identify and evaluate key risk drivers, sensitivities, and contributors to cost and schedule uncertainty.
- Integrate quantitative analysis with project risk registers, cost estimates, schedules, and risk-management processes.
- Work closely with project controls, estimating, scheduling, engineering, finance, and project-management teams to validate model assumptions and inputs.
- Review project estimates and schedules to identify areas of uncertainty and potential exposure.
- Support development of risk-adjusted project forecasts and recommendations for management decision-making.
- Prepare clear, concise reports, dashboards, presentations, and risk-analysis summaries for project stakeholders and leadership.
- Facilitate risk workshops and collaborate with subject-matter experts to identify, quantify, and prioritize project risks.
- Maintain documentation of modeling assumptions, methodologies, simulation results, and risk-analysis conclusions.
- Support ongoing monitoring of project risks and update quantitative models as project conditions change.
Required Qualifications
- 3+ years of experience in project risk analysis, cost risk analysis, schedule risk analysis, project controls, or a related discipline.
- Demonstrated hands-on experience performing Monte Carlo analysis for project cost and/or schedule risk.
- Experience developing probabilistic cost and/or schedule models, including uncertainty ranges, probability distributions, and correlations.
- Experience interpreting Monte Carlo results, including P50/P80/P90 forecasts, contingency requirements, risk drivers, and sensitivity analyses.
- Working knowledge of capital-project estimating and project scheduling.
- Experience working with project risk registers and quantitative risk analysis methodologies.
- Strong analytical, problem-solving, and data-interpretation skills.
- Ability to translate complex quantitative risk results into clear recommendations for project teams and leadership.
- Strong written and verbal communication skills.
Preferred Qualifications
- Experience with Primavera Risk Analysis.
- Experience with Primavera P6 and/or other enterprise scheduling tools.
- Experience supporting large-scale capital programs, construction, engineering, infrastructure, energy, utilities, or industrial projects.
- Experience integrating cost estimates, schedules, risk registers, and quantitative risk models.
- Familiarity with project controls, earned value, forecasting, and contingency management.
- Experience facilitating project risk identification and quantification workshops.
- Bachelor's degree in Engineering, Construction Management, Finance, Economics, Mathematics, Statistics, Project Management, or a related field.
Core Competencies
- Quantitative Cost & Schedule Risk Analysis
- Monte Carlo Simulation
- Probabilistic Modeling
- Cost Estimating
- Schedule Risk Analysis
- Project Controls
- Risk Registers
- Risk Quantification
- P50 / P80 / P90 Forecasting
- Contingency Analysis
- Sensitivity & Risk-Driver Analysis
- Primavera Risk Analysis
- Primavera P6
- Capital Project Risk Management
- Stakeholder Communication
